Decoding Geopolitics with Dominik Presl
Decoding Geopolitics with Dominik Presl
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Russia's War Machine Is Peaking. Next Year, It Runs Out of Steam | Ep. 26 Dr. Jack Watling
➡️ PATREON: www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics
Dr. Jack Watling is Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute. Jack works closely with the British military on the development of concepts of operation, assessments of the future operating environment, and conducts operational analysis of contemporary conflicts.
In this conversation, we talked about two wars that Russia is currently waging: an overt one against Ukraine and a covert war against the West. Thank you to everyone who supports this podcast on Patreon - and if you want to support what I'm doing, do consider becoming a supporter on Patreon as well.
0:00 - Intro
1:14 - Russia Is Compounding Advantages
4:55 - Ukrainian & Western Military Training
13:56 - When Will Russia Run Out of Troops and Equipment
22:53 - Russia-Ukraine Losses Ratio
26:51 - Theory of Victory for Ukraine
40:02 - Russian Kharkiv Offensive - A Failure?
42.49 - Ukraine's Biggest Problem?
45:42 - What Will Happen in 2024?
48:19 - Russia's Covert War Against the West
Переглядів: 83 192

Відео

Ben Hodges: Is NATO Ready for War with Russia?
Переглядів 40 тис.14 годин тому
Ben Hodges: Is NATO Ready for War with Russia?
Ben Hodges: Would Putin Use Nukes?
Переглядів 46 тис.19 годин тому
Ben Hodges: Would Putin Use Nukes?
Ben Hodges: We Shouldn't Fear Collapse of Putin's Regime
Переглядів 50 тис.День тому
Ben Hodges: We Shouldn't Fear Collapse of Putin's Regime
'This War Will End With a Russian Collapse. Donald Trump Will Leave NATO.' | Ep. 25 Jake Broe
Переглядів 295 тис.14 днів тому
➡️ PATREON: www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics This is a conversation with Jake Broe, a former Nuclear and Missile Operations Officer and one of the biggest UA-camrs providing daily updates on the war in Ukraine. We talked about why Jake thinks Donald Trump will leave NATO, why the war will end with a political and economic collapse of Russia and much, much more. 0:00 - Intro 1:32 - Jake's Mil...
"This Is Not Working Anymore": Ukraine's New Strategy For Victory | Ep. 24 Mykola Bielieskov
Переглядів 11 тис.28 днів тому
➡️ PATREON: www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics This is a conversation with Mykola Bilieskov, a Ukrainian analyst and a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine institute under the Ukrainian presidential administration. We talked about why Ukrainians are hesitant to join the military, why Western model of support for Ukraine is not working anymore, why he is mo...
How Finland Joining NATO Checkmates Russia & Why Is It Ready For War | Ep. 23 Minna Ålander
Переглядів 23 тис.Місяць тому
➡️ PATREON: www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics This is a conversation with Minna Alander - a research fellow at the Finnish Institute for International Affairs who's focusing, among other topics on Finnish security and defence policy, Nordic defence cooperation and Arctic security. Finland is quite an exception among European countries - because while today many are panicking and trying to mak...
Why Myanmar Rebels Are Winning Over A Military Junta & Why It Matters | Ep. 22 Thomas Van Linge
Переглядів 2,6 тис.Місяць тому
➡️ PATREON: www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics This is a conversation with Thomas Van Linge - a freelance journalist and a researcher covering the world's forgotten conflicts, including the civil war in Myanmar. Recently, he came back from a research trip to the rebel-held areas in Myanmar where he stayed with the rebels, visited the frontlines and saw up close what the war looks like. In this...
General Hodges on Retaking Crimea, NATO in Ukraine and Russian Collapse | Ep. 21 Gen. Ben Hodges
Переглядів 854 тис.Місяць тому
➡️ PATREON: www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics This is a conversation with Ben Hodges, a retired three star general of the US army, the former Commander of US Army Europe and someone who spent more than three decades as a military officer and achieved one of the highest posts in the US Armed Forces. In this interview, we discussed what the latest military package means for Ukraine, why the Wes...
This Is What Happens If Russia Invades The Baltics | Ep. 20 Lukas Milevski
Переглядів 57 тис.2 місяці тому
➡️ PATREON: www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics This is a conversation with Lukas Milevski, a professor at Leiden University and an expert on strategy and defense and security of the Baltic countries. In this interview, we talk about what would happen if Russia invades the Baltics, how prepared they are, if they could be successful and how big of a risk it actually is. Thank you to everyone sup...
Can China Invade Taiwan and Defeat the U.S. Military? | Ep. 19 Brian Hart (CSIS)
Переглядів 33 тис.2 місяці тому
➡️ PATREON: www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics This is a conversation with Brian Hart - a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and an expert on China's military and its foreign and security policy. We talked about what is the real capability of China's military, whether it's a paper tiger or if it's prepared and ready to take Taiwan by force, if 2027 is the y...
CIA Officer on Outsmarting the Russians, Chinese Spies & War in Ukraine | Ep.18 David Gioe
Переглядів 42 тис.2 місяці тому
➡️ PATREON: www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics This is a conversation with David Gioe. David has two decades of experience as an intelligence officer, starting his career in the FBI and then joining the CIA, first as an analyst and later as an field-qualified operations officer. He deployed a number of times overseas and worked on counter-intelligence, clandestine operations and covert action....
Putin's Growing Problems & Why Russia Is More Fragile Than It Seems | Ep. 17 Mark Galeotti
Переглядів 170 тис.2 місяці тому
➡️ PATREON: www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics This is a conversation with Mark Galeotti - an honorary professor at UCL, a senior associate fellow at Royal United Services Institute, director of Mayak Intelligence and one of the most renowned experts on Russia and Russian politics. We talked about the attacks in Moscow - whether he thought it could have been a false flag, or whether the Russia...
Why Germany Won't Give Ukraine Taurus & Why It Fails To Fix Its Military | Ep. 16 Ulrike Franke
Переглядів 23 тис.3 місяці тому
➡️ PATREON: www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics Support this podcast on Patreon, help me make more episodes and get bonus content, early access and ask questions to the upcoming guests. Dr Ulrike Franke is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations who's focusing on German Security, Foreign and Defense policy and has a deep insight into the inner workings of German poli...
What Iran Really Wants and Why The U.S. Is Unable to Stop It | Ep. 15 Alex Vatanka
Переглядів 4,4 тис.3 місяці тому
➡️ PATREON: www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics Support this podcast on Patreon, help me make more episodes and get bonus content, early access and ask questions to the upcoming guests. This is a conversation with Alex Vatanka - a Tehran-born expert on Iranian domestic and foreign policy and a director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute. In this conversation we talk about Iran's g...
General Ryan: This Is What A War With China Will Look Like | Ep. 14 General Mick Ryan
Переглядів 27 тис.3 місяці тому
General Ryan: This Is What A War With China Will Look Like | Ep. 14 General Mick Ryan
Why Hungary Supports Russia & Orban's Grand Strategy | Ep. 13 Szabolcs Panyi
Переглядів 13 тис.4 місяці тому
Why Hungary Supports Russia & Orban's Grand Strategy | Ep. 13 Szabolcs Panyi
Vlad Vexler on Navalny, War and the Future of Russia | Ep. 12 Vlad Vexler
Переглядів 40 тис.4 місяці тому
Vlad Vexler on Navalny, War and the Future of Russia | Ep. 12 Vlad Vexler
Why Chinese Are Growing Anxious & The Danger of Declining China | Ep. 11 David Rennie (Drum Tower)
Переглядів 148 тис.4 місяці тому
Why Chinese Are Growing Anxious & The Danger of Declining China | Ep. 11 David Rennie (Drum Tower)
Anders Nielsen on Ukraine's Strategy to Defeat Russia | Ep. 10 Anders Puck Nielsen
Переглядів 132 тис.4 місяці тому
Anders Nielsen on Ukraine's Strategy to Defeat Russia | Ep. 10 Anders Puck Nielsen
British General on Why Britain Needs Conscription Again
Переглядів 2,9 тис.4 місяці тому
British General on Why Britain Needs Conscription Again
The General Who Predicted The Russian Invasion on What's Next | Ep.9 Gen. Richard Shirreff
Переглядів 561 тис.5 місяців тому
The General Who Predicted The Russian Invasion on What's Next | Ep.9 Gen. Richard Shirreff
Is Russia Learning From Its Mistakes & Could It Attack NATO? | Ep. 8 George Barros
Переглядів 24 тис.5 місяців тому
Is Russia Learning From Its Mistakes & Could It Attack NATO? | Ep. 8 George Barros
Why Ukraine Can Still Lose the War - Francis Farrell
Переглядів 1,4 тис.5 місяців тому
Why Ukraine Can Still Lose the War - Francis Farrell
Why Ukraine Can Still Lose the War | Ep. 7 Francis Farrell
Переглядів 3,2 тис.5 місяців тому
Why Ukraine Can Still Lose the War | Ep. 7 Francis Farrell
How the Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Will Happen From Day 1 - Mark Cancian
Переглядів 6 тис.5 місяців тому
How the Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Will Happen From Day 1 - Mark Cancian
Retired Marine Colonel on Why Taiwan Is So Hard To Invade
Переглядів 2,6 тис.5 місяців тому
Retired Marine Colonel on Why Taiwan Is So Hard To Invade
This Is What Happens When China Invades Taiwan | Ep.6 Mark F. Cancian
Переглядів 254 тис.5 місяців тому
This Is What Happens When China Invades Taiwan | Ep.6 Mark F. Cancian
Why Japan Is Abandoning Pacifism | Ep.5 Robert Ward
Переглядів 9 тис.6 місяців тому
Why Japan Is Abandoning Pacifism | Ep.5 Robert Ward
Why Experts Failed To Predict Russia's Invasion of Ukraine - Mark Galeotti
Переглядів 12 тис.6 місяців тому
Why Experts Failed To Predict Russia's Invasion of Ukraine - Mark Galeotti

КОМЕНТАРІ

  • @thonos3066
    @thonos3066 15 хвилин тому

    😂

  • @SMK-hq5zi
    @SMK-hq5zi 22 хвилини тому

    Much love to Russia from Slovak Republik! 🇸🇰❤️🇷🇺

  • @enlighty
    @enlighty 51 хвилина тому

    So narrowminded person. This is why the generals are bad at politics

  • @brellosjanos1022
    @brellosjanos1022 2 години тому

    Why did Russia liberate Crimea and Donbass? We knew that Russia would not allow a NATO Ukraine. In Donbass and Crimea no one wants to be Ukrainian. And it is also completely clear that Russia is not thinking of moving west, let alone against NATO. It doesn't make sense and they don't have the capacity. Therefore, Mr. General, please stop lying.

  • @user-is4ed3ps5cM
    @user-is4ed3ps5cM 6 годин тому

    Ми в Україні теж не вірили, що путін почне велику війну навіть тоді, коли були скупченні війська біля наших кордонів. Але ця хвора тварина таки почала цю криваву війну!!! І ми платимо дуже велику ціну, бо не були повністю готові до цього! Люди не бажають вірити, що станеться щось погане, але зло існує, і воно існує у хворих на фашизм головах росіян, а не тільки путіна. Будьте пильні, вчиться на чужих помилках!!!

  • @atheistbushman
    @atheistbushman 8 годин тому

    I hope you are wrong about Trump pulling out of Nato. Trump is definitely silly, but he is also unpredictable.

  • @suxcawks
    @suxcawks 8 годин тому

    Russia's War Machine is Edging. Next Year, It Busts.

  • @sowelie1
    @sowelie1 11 годин тому

    Dr. Jack will lose his job when Farage wins, at least there are books to sell..... Ok, after listening I have to edit my comment, doc is really good, I just expected some fully unrealistic hawkish talk after Turkey comment at the start.

  • @jeanneknight4791
    @jeanneknight4791 12 годин тому

    This was a VERY IMPORTANT DISCUSSION! Thank you for bringing this out. I have heard these issues brought up so often but it seems that the support is going in circles.

  • @DougWedel-wj2jl
    @DougWedel-wj2jl 12 годин тому

    I had a hunch Russia is fighting because they had a large supply of arms left over from the USSR. It’s the sunk cost fallacy. Once that’s used up, they may be a bit more cooperative. What can Ukraine do to speed up the day Russia is more amenable to a genuine peace? Strike weapons factories? More strikes on refineries? I was thinking cutting supply lines to the front lines will starve the front enough they will collapse. But it looks like that’s hard to do.

  • @Lukky_Luke
    @Lukky_Luke 13 годин тому

    so Russia is running out of money in late 2024/ early 2025. So think maybe this whole video is a bit not really that realistic of the timelines that "the professor" gives. The sovereign wealth fund is the one Im talking about. And since Ukraine is picking of oil production likes depots and refineries it will maybe be earlier

  • @dixonpinfold2582
    @dixonpinfold2582 14 годин тому

    Outstanding chat. My thanks to the two of you. In future, I'd love to hear from someone about the health of Russia's economy, the part of it not directly associated with the war effort. What kind of an economy is it turning into? Also about impacts on the country's wealth and financial soundness.

  • @elmercy4968
    @elmercy4968 14 годин тому

    Russia didn't collapse twice in the last 100 years. The Russian revolution was 1917.

  • @bokidimi5215
    @bokidimi5215 16 годин тому

    Amzing idiot. Unblievable BS.

  • @patriccreek9451
    @patriccreek9451 20 годин тому

    Still amazes me how stupid some people are to believe this properganda! Russia has said all along why, and how! Yet people don't listen!

  • @mightyherc1
    @mightyherc1 22 години тому

    Much better than expected. Dr Jack Watling clearly articulated answers to almost every question I had about the war in Ukraine. Well done!

  • @user-rz9wh5hx2f
    @user-rz9wh5hx2f 23 години тому

    Jake Broe speaks the truth - if Trump gets in America as we know it is finished 😔☠️

  • @dennismaloney7241
    @dennismaloney7241 День тому

    The Bilderberg Group controls Trump. That's why he can go bankrupt six times and keep his wealth. Trump can get caught for fraud to the tune of $455,000,000 dollars only to receive $1,000,000,000 almost out of thin air (Truth Social). Trump is protected by a secret society of billionaires that can buy SCOTUS or anyone who threatens their plans to end the United State's dominance.

  • @milanveverka4077
    @milanveverka4077 День тому

    Y suckers never defet russia

  • @SONMINHTRAN1
    @SONMINHTRAN1 День тому

    Trump never dares to leave NATO but to calibrate NATO to make NATO much stronger.

  • @AP-cc1uw
    @AP-cc1uw День тому

    This hasn't aged well and its only been a month. Hodges should be sweeping floors somewhere.

  • @endofdaysprophet
    @endofdaysprophet День тому

    Why wouldn't NATO help Russia defeat the Nazis in Ukraine???

  • @endofdaysprophet
    @endofdaysprophet День тому

    Why wouldn't NATO IN help Russia defeat the Nazis in Ukraine???

  • @ThePaulobraveheart
    @ThePaulobraveheart День тому

    Trump doesn't win, and Russia will become North Korea's 2nd.

  • @ThePedroski007
    @ThePedroski007 День тому

    Kharkiv did draw in ukr reserves but it also used 30-40,000 Russian forces away from the front they are trying to expand.

  • @ghazanfaryaq6776
    @ghazanfaryaq6776 День тому

    I was big supporter of Trump in 2016 but not this time. Now is not the time for him to get elected albeit we experiencing an immigration crisis at our border.

  • @thomasjgallagher924
    @thomasjgallagher924 День тому

    Both the government here in Ukraine and particularly its allies abroad are chronicly behind. We've only been able to stay in the fight because of Russian inadequacies, which are apparently diminishing. We're: 1. under-estimating the Ukrainian pessimism about each man's chances af surviving this war, all of which deters him to fight what is now commonly seen as being unwinnable. Major credit for blowing all the good opportunities goes to Joe Biden and Jake Sullivan. They've enable Putin's murder of tens of thousands and the destruction of Ukraine's economy by playing his escalation game. 2. likely going to need direct NATO intervention to avoid a Ukrainian defeat. This has a lot to do with Europe dragging its feet on defense production and enabling Putin to push out 4-million Ukrainian workers, consumers, and potential military personnel. The 1-million men that Europe is sheltering will eventually have to be replaced with European soldiers or we're likely looking at a Ukrainian defeat. 3. still not getting a solution from Kyiv on how we get back energy production and industry and actually get on with the business of rebuilding the Ukrainian economy. There are large swaths of the country that are defensible and strategically well situated, but Ukrainians are so stuck in their myopia that they cannot imagine things other than they have been. 4. not anticipating as much as we should China being the next nation to back-fill Putin's loss of tanks etc. This war will not be over by 2026 with the current NATO-member leadership. (Sure Trump will end the war by bringing the end of Ukraine, but what does that say about Europe that Scholz just willfully let Ukraine struggle with so few of the necessary capabilities.) Please pardon my indelicate words, but "frustrated" no longer defines my condition.

  • @Flight-Risk
    @Flight-Risk День тому

    Ben Hodges, the voice of reason.

  • @pgf289
    @pgf289 День тому

    So we have F-16's and, probably more importantly, SAAB 340 preparing to deploy in Ukraine by the end of the year. As Dr Watling alluded, that's taken longer than it should have, and we risk making the same mistakes again with rationalisation of weapon and ammunition supply. My big concern for the medium-term is what AFV's we can supply to Ukraine, European NATO has given almost all it's spare stockpiles and now for Ukraine to get a decent flow of vehicles it will essentially need new ones (unless the US decides to send a lot more which currently seems unlikely), who is going to supply those vehicles and who will pay for them? NATO armoured vehicle production is pretty much a trickle of several expensive types with little commonality. A relatively simple, more mass produced range of vehicles will soon need to be produced and supplied to replace Ukrainian losses if they are going to reconstitute their armoured forces and train units to fight at higher than company/battalion level.

  • @proximityportal
    @proximityportal День тому

    Mearsheimer seems to have the better take.

  • @magratea123
    @magratea123 День тому

    Nice point of view, but I will not bet on this, considering bunch of similar predictions year or two ago. I know public love this attitude of weak, disorganised and corrupted Russia, but obviously western inteligence and diplomacy was so wrong about it. Dehumanising and underestimating the rest of the world is main mistake of colonial empire, and this is obvious on battlefront and in economics.

  • @markortner7066
    @markortner7066 День тому

    Nice try, like they ran out of steam during the 2nd world war. Expert at b.s.

  • @centurione6489
    @centurione6489 День тому

    Russia cannot conquer Ukraine with NO NATO boots on the ground and NO NATO fighter in the skies ...

  • @user-kb9sm3dh3i
    @user-kb9sm3dh3i День тому

    Konflikt vyhraje veliké RUSKO a jeho president PUTIN, Ukrajina padne do konce roku. Sláva hrdinnému ruskému lidu, konec fašismu v Evropě.

  • @samist8792
    @samist8792 День тому

    This is a very interesting interview but from it to me appears that there is no realistic way for Ukrainians to win this war and that perhaps for Ukrainians the war has been already lost. There are several reasons for such conclusion which I will briefly outline. The first one is Russo -Ukrainian expectations in terms of defining win in this war. While Russian objectives are more limited and realistic the Ukrainians set for themselves unachievable objectives. While Russians are proposing a model for a neutral Ukraine with loss of some territory for Ukraine, Ukrainians establishment talks of a full liberation of currently occupied territories. It doesn’t matter what is considered fair or ethical here but rather what is realistically achievable and at what cost. The second one is Dr Watling statement that Ukraine could win war if it was given “needed” resources it needs to win the war. However, those “needed” resources are very much a hypothetical concept which implies close to infinite resources given to Ukrainian disposal which Ukraine will not have even with a full and much bigger than up to date support by the West. Ukraine is running out of people willing to fight and the authorities resorted to literally hunting people on streets and sending them to the front. On the other hand, Russia is pretty much a canonical example of a state with limitless resources. The third point is complicated, but I will anyhow somehow try to elaborate it. Ukraine is as well a victim of Western and NATO ambition to be construct a European security framework without a significant participation of Russia. History however suggest that this is impossible to achieve without a strategic defeat of Rusia and its relegation from the status of great powers. While this is unlikely to happen, Russia identified Ukraine as an instrumental clog towards this Western strategy which looks as if will not end well for Ukraine. This component also means that most of us observing this war struggle to understand what Russians are doing as we are focused on the tactical aspect of the war. Therefore, we are obsessed who is winning/losing battles, who gains or loses certain territories, why the Russians do not launch a massive offensive etc. On the other hand, it increasingly appears that the Russians care about the tactical aspect and are strictly guided by their strategic objectives. We are observing the war from distance is often confused by Russian action in the war. We are preoccupied with the tactical component of the war -we observe various battles, question why Russian do not engage in a massive offensive. On the other hand, it looks as if Russians do not care about tactical aspect of the war, i think they observe it strictly through their strategic objectives. This probably means that they will not care about individual battles, temporary gains or losses of territories or the time frame of how long it takes them to achieve objectives. Longer it lasts it gets harder for Ukrainians and Ukraine gets closer to implosion. Unfortunately, this will not end well for Ukraine. At the end USA, Russia and China will find a new model and establish a new world order. Ukraine will pay a high price but the end game doesn’t look well for Europe too.

  • @ajsorosa
    @ajsorosa День тому

    This was one of the, if not the best, exposure of what is really happening. Very good!

  • @messertl
    @messertl День тому

    It will take years if not decades to "reenergize" your industrial base. How can a "General" not know this? It will take a generation just to train people to be able exploit any industry.

  • @TaiganTundra
    @TaiganTundra День тому

    Supporting this stalemate meatgrinder war on either side is genocide at this point.

  • @magefixler885
    @magefixler885 День тому

    This gentle man has never served in the military. He's about as qualified as Tom Clancy when it comes to warfare.

  • @python1916
    @python1916 День тому

    Talking rubbish so go and fight him then

  • @python1916
    @python1916 День тому

    Rubbish 🗑

  • @egosunpauper
    @egosunpauper День тому

    NATO is indrect in war with Russia so far, as NATO was established to destroy Russia and weaken Germany. NATO prepared and finance this war long time ahead. If someone says, it was unprovoqued, he/she has low knowledge about history and how NATO operates.

  • @marklandwehr7604
    @marklandwehr7604 День тому

    Ukraine will receive the interest from russia's money that is being held in the west 😂hahaha hahaha hahaha Ukraine just made it over the material hurdle with this money that russia just have no control over

  • @marklandwehr7604
    @marklandwehr7604 День тому

    Next year russia will exceed the number of casualties of america lost in the civil war

  • @marklandwehr7604
    @marklandwehr7604 День тому

    It can't be getting better for russia if they're losing thirteen hundred soldiers a day Have had to resort to motorcycles golf carts and scooby doo vans

  • @marklandwehr7604
    @marklandwehr7604 День тому

    Russia is using golf carts scooby doo.Vans and motorcycles cause they don't have armored personnel carriers

  • @MrFenkins
    @MrFenkins День тому

    If baltic states know for a fact that invasion is imminent & the chances of deflecting it are slim, why not adopt 2nd amendment? Only way to make sure dictatorship never pass the gate

  • @glennpaulsson5658
    @glennpaulsson5658 День тому

    Nato usa Nazisterna kommer att förlora ingen vinner ett krig mot Ryssland

  • @user-td1ob4kd1m
    @user-td1ob4kd1m День тому

    How much are they paying you to make such stupid declarations... ?